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Just two days prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a bold forecast – not just the winner overall, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, devoted over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become something of a well-known figure recently for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He published his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win while missing the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

It was necessary since they were dropping around 200,000 ballots into the system every few minutes! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: The candidate led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of votes added after that and his lead went from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world where yesterday turned out somewhat badly for him, where Cuomo was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the Democratic primary. However Mamdani added 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and greatly broadened his support from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he further maximized his base of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the coalition that the left always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president previously went for the progressive this year. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the record participation. Who benefited?

Both sides. Turnout was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured we might go over 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s likely to surpass half. He has 50.4% but remain around 200,000 votes left to report as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I hope he achieves it so then no one can say the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That truly surprised me. The independent kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and devout communities, and plus gained many Republicans on the island who had a strong turnout. I think occurred significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it before the former president tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for the candidate dominant in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for the independent. Thus there was some opposition. But overall, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on if Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what New York represents in politics? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key figures from progressives come from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I believe that there will be more of that – candidates will come from these areas to be elevated nationally.

But I think that each urban center in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of progressive influence in the nation – because they’re young, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities exist.