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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although experts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.