From Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.
A shock assault against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period.
That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.
Official Outrage and Private Thoughts
In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.
“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be fighting for this long.”
These observations have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.
Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.
Allies in Decline
For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.
However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.
Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.
“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”
The Ukraine Priority
There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.
“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.
Tangible Costs and New Threats
Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.
Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.
Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.
A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.
“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”
A Bleak Silver Lining?
Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.
“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”